Since its official entry into force on January 1, 1994, U.S. public opinion on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has changed over time. [1] Republicans and Democrats saw tariffs between the U.S. and China a little differently. Nearly three-quarters of Democrats (72 percent) thought the tariffs would have a long-term negative impact on the economy, and 56 percent said they would negatively affect their own finances. In contrast, a majority of Republicans (62 percent) said the tariffs would help the U.S. economy, thinking the tariffs would have no impact on their personal finances (44 percent) or improve them (39 percent). In this survey, promoting favorable trade policies for Americans ranked fourth out of eight possible foreign policy objectives. It has fallen a little behind securing the United States` energy supply (80% very important) and preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons (84%) or future acts of terrorism (85%). It ranked first in the defense of the security of U.S. allies (66 percent) and cooperated with the United Nations. achieve global cooperation (63%) and the promotion of human rights (53%) or the building of democracy (29%) in other countries.
Democrats are nearly twice as likely as their Republican counterparts to support trade with Cuba, likely because of respondents` attitudes toward communism. Iran, China, and Mexico represent three countries that President Trump has frequently criticized, which has likely led to a partisan split in supporting trade with those countries, while Russia has the opposite effect, as Trump regularly praises Putin, while Democrats point to Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Overall, current public opinion on NAFTA is positive, with recent polls showing that a majority of Americans see NAFTA as good for the U.S. economy. [4] [5] However, it should be noted that public opinion towards NAFTA fluctuated widely when the survey data was divided into different categories (e.g.B political party, level of education). [5] Americans tend to view trade as beneficial rather than harmful to American workers, 51% to 42%. The relationship between Americans` perception of U.S. trade and economic conditions has been particularly strong since 2011.
While the unemployment rate rose from more than 9% in January 2011 to 4.0% in January 2019, the percentage of Americans who perceive trade as a threat to imports has more than halved, from 45% to 21%. Conversely, a June 2005 survey of international political attitudes found that in the space of about a year, 46% of respondents considered NAFTA to be a good policy for the United States. [8] Also in the spring of 2008, opinions changed negatively, as a Pew Research Center/Council on Foreign Relations poll found that 48% of respondents thought NAFTA was bad for the United States. [2] A Rasmussen report shares this particular shift in opinion with rising oil and food prices and other economic factors. [8] Will Trump`s domestic foreign policy survive his mandate? Some, like author and former Republican Max Boot, have turned to public opinion data to suggest that public support for global engagement “offers some hope that we can recover from this disastrous presidency.” But this data tells only part of the story; There is a clear difference between the principle of support for trade, alliances and international institutions and politics. Do Americans still support internationalist issues such as free trade, alliances, and the ACTIVE involvement of the United States in world politics? In principle, yes, but in practice? That is debatable. Gallup trade polls since President Donald Trump took office in 2017 reveal five key points. Although the proposed trilateral free trade agreement was one of the most controversial issues in the 1992 presidential election, early polling data from NBC/Wall Street Journal showed that a general majority of Americans had no opinion or were unsure about politics. [6] Figure 1 – Percentage of Americans who prefer to trade with the following countries Sixty-two percent of Americans say China`s trade policy with the U.S. is unfair, while majorities say Canada, Japan and the EU policies are fair. Gallup did not explicitly ask Americans if they agreed with an “America First” trade approach, but less than a month after Trump`s presidency in February 2017, 71 percent of Americans felt that “promoting U.S.-friendly trade policies in foreign markets” was a “very important” goal of U.S.
foreign policy. On the one hand, twice as many Americans said in June 2018 that China was engaging in unfair rather than fair trade with the U.S. — 62 percent versus 30 percent — by far the worst rating given to a U.S. trading partner. On the other hand, Americans have not taken Trump`s tough stance on trade. As of July 2018, more and more Americans thought the tariffs imposed by the U.S. and China after the stalled trade talks would be more harmful than useful to the U.S. economy in the long run, with 45 percent saying so. However, respondents` expectations of the impact on their own finances and those of their employer were less negative, with almost half saying the rates would have no effect. Most Americans considered it “very” or “somewhat” important for Trump to keep each of his three main trade promises, with an absolute majority saying one of them was very important: the Council`s 2019 report states that 87 percent of Americans consider trade to be “good for the U.S. economy” and 83 percent to be “good for U.S. business.” without partisan division.
However, enthusiasm for international trade is curbed and becomes increasingly partisan when the issue specifies the trading partner. The evolution of public opinion on NAFTA from 1999 to 2015 often alternated between support and rejection of the policy. .